Liverpool's Striker Hunt: Analyzing Plan B Options Beyond Isak

Liverpool’s Striker Conundrum

As a data analyst who’s spent years watching the transfer market circus unfold, Liverpool’s current striker hunt feels particularly fascinating. The Reds’ primary target Alexander Isak remains stuck in Newcastle contract limbo - that tantalizing blend of ‘non-transferable’ status and player dissatisfaction that makes agents rich and fans anxious.

The Isak Situation: By the Numbers

The Swedish forward boasts impressive metrics: 0.57 non-penalty xG per 90 last season (92nd percentile among Premier League forwards), combined with elite progressive carries (6.31 per 90). But Newcastle’s £60m+ valuation and contractual stalemate have forced Liverpool to activate what I call “the spreadsheet phase” of transfer negotiations - when clubs suddenly remember there are other players in world football.

Alternative Targets Analyzed

1. Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)

   • Pros: Premier League proven (15 goals last season), presses like a man who stole Klopp’s playbook (22.7 pressures/90)
   • Cons: Turns 29 this year; Villa will demand silly money after CL qualification

2. Victor Osimhen (Napoli)

   • The nuclear option involving potential Darwin Núñez swap
   • Elite finisher but injury history reads like a medical textbook
   • Wage demands could break Liverpool’s strict structure

3. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)

   • Underrated xG overperformer (+3.5 goals above expected last season)
   • Versatility fits Liverpool’s fluid front three system perfectly

4. Randal Kolo Muani (Frankfurt)

   • Sample size concerns after one breakout Bundesliga season
   • But created 0.33 xA/90 - rare creativity for a center-forward

My Data-Driven Verdict

While Isak remains the ideal profile, Mbeumo presents the smartest value proposition. His underlying numbers suggest he’s ready for a step up, and at 24, fits FSG’s preferred age curve. That said, if Liverpool want immediate guaranteed output, paying the premium for Watkins might be the pragmatic choice - even if it hurts their resale value models.

Remember folks: in the transfer market, sometimes the best signing is the one you don’t make.